Why You Should Believe In Vernon Wells

I believe in Vernon Wells. You know that. Even more so after his performance yesterday in Arlington; he left me tingling with excitement. You know how I roll: I don't hop aboard the nearest lifeboat, or even reach for a life jacket. I grab an instrument, and start playing. I go down with the ship.

But this isn't about me. It's about you. And why you ought to join me on the Vernon Wells Express. Next stop: Redemption City.

Before I get into the details, it's important to, once again, point out that Wells' play will never justify his contract. Never. Ever. The perfect storm led to Wells signing for $126 million over seven years (!!!!!111) back in 2006, and you can't be mad at him for signing on the dotted line. You would have done the same. It's best to let your anger go, and instead hope that Wells can once again become a functioning member of baseball society here in Toronto. Because the good Lord above knows he won't be plying his trade anywhere else.

Since becoming the Toronto Blue Jays' everyday centre fielder way back in 2002, Wells has posted four sub-.800 OPS seasons. Here they are:

2002: .275/.305/.457; 23 HR, 100 RsBI; .762 OPS

2005: .269/.320/.463; 28 HR, 97 RsBI; .783 OPS

2007: .245/.304/.402; 16 HR, 80 RsBI; .706 OPS

2009: .260/.311/.400; 15 HR, 66 RsBI; .711 OPS

I know what you're thinking: I'd love an hour alone with former Jays president Paul Godfrey, too. In Vernon's defence, his 2005 OPS+ comes in at 104; very slightly above average. But the injuries, and the recent drop in power numbers, are deeply concerning. Again, what's done is done. Here's what matters: Wells has always bounced back.

2003: .317/.359/.550; 33 HR, 117 RsBI; .909 OPS

2006: .303/.357/.542; 32 HR, 106 RsBI; .899 OPS

2008: .300/.343/.496; 20 HR, 78 RsBI; .840 OPS

2010: (projected) .750/.750/1.500; 162 HR, 486 RsBI; 2.250 OPS

Injuries limited Wells to only 108 games in 2008, but he was on pace for one of the better seasons of his career. And those 108 games proved, to these eyes, that Wells doesn't need a Carlos Delgado or a Troy Glaus batting behind him to succeed. Wells was Toronto's only legitimate power threat two years ago; no other Blue Jay hit more than 15 home runs.

The point is: history only repeats itself. If Opening Day is any indication, 2010 will be the year of Vernon Wells.

(You know that bit about history only repeating itself? Let's hope that's not the case in terms of Wells following up a great year - 2006 and 2008 - with a tremendously awful one.)

Man of the Hour

Another day, another debate about J.P. Ricciardi. The beleaguered J.P. Ricciardi.

On Wednesday, it was Joe Posnanski's turn to rip the Toronto GM. (The Tao of Stieb called it a "hatchet job.") In short: Ricciardi signs guys to brutal - and only brutal - contracts, and "we should just start referring to bad baseball contracts as 'Ricciardis.'"

On Thursday, Posnanski did it again, posting the same article from his blog to Sports Illustrated. Vernon Wells and the Blue Jays made the front page, pictured above, for all the wrong reasons.

Yet in an article about Vernon Wells and his rightfully unjustifiable contract, nary a mention of ownership; of Rogers; of Paul Godfrey. Convenient, if you ask me. Also: irresponsible. A simple Google search of "wells godfrey contract" leads one to an article, the third search result, by The Toronto Star's Richard Griffin, entitled Godfrey behind Wells pitch. Written in the days before Wells signed on the dotted line in December 2006, Griffin pulled no punches:

"Ricciardi's emotions with regard to Wells have always been on the side of letting him walk at the end of his current contract. Either that or deal him for value. But [Paul] Godfrey is the one who responds to his emotions like a fan. Such seems the case again. ... If this Wells seven-year extension is done, it will be in spite of Ricciardi."

Joe Posnanski, one of the most revered baseball writers in the business, cannot write an article about J.P. Ricciardi and bad contracts, focusing on Vernon Wells, without mentioning that tiny nugget of information about Godfrey. It ain't right. No, it doesn't absolve Ricciardi of all responsibility, but it cannot simply be left out.

As with most articles belittling Ricciardi, hindsight comes in most handy. While he mentions the other two mammoth contracts of 2006, Carlos Lee (6 years, $100 million) and Alfonso Soriano (8 years, $136 million), alongside Wells's, Pos fails to point out that all three were signed before the baseball market tanked, and before the economy went into a spiral the likes of which it hasn't in generations. Pos also fails to mention that, in 2007, Wells would have been in a free agent class with rival centre fielders Ichiro, and Torri Hunter, who both took home deals averaging $18 million a season.

Looking back, I understand where Godfrey was coming from when he, based on what's been written by Toronto's paid sportswriters, overruled Ricciardi. If the Blue Jays had allowed Wells to walk, which of those free agents mentioned above, in either 2006 or 2007, would have, even for a minute, considered Toronto? You're right; none.

Signing Wells was Godfrey being a fan, and being in love with, to quote my man J.P., "the player." I definitely know what that's all about. It was also optics. Vernon was the face of the franchise, and coming off one of his best seasons. It's why I maintain that, at the time, the crazy, bat-shit insane time, Wells' contract was market value, with the Jays having to pay a premium to keep/sign a free agent in Toronto, and keep Wells from hitting the open market.

Career OPSs as of August 13, 2009:

Carlos Lee .850

Alfonso Soriano .838

Ichiro .811

Vernon Wells .802

Torri Hunter .802

(I am in no way, shape, or form comparing Vernon Wells to Ichiro. I have some semblance of a brain.)

The information is out there, available to everyone. Instead of finding it on my blog, it should be available on the front page of SI.com.

Also on Pos's list of the worst contracts in baseball, he singles out the departed Alex Rios. I vehemently disagree; "departed" being the key word. If Rios's contract was that bad, Chicago wouldn't have taken it. Period.

ESPN's Rob Neyer picked up on the Pos blog post on Wednesday, and rightfully wondered whether Pos was being a little too harsh on Ricciardi. He singled out a couple of comments from Posnanski's site, one of them mine, about meddling ownership. (No acknowledgement, of course, from the Worldwide Leader.) I was simply trying to set the record straight.

While I disagree with some of what Neyer wrote as well, I think he gets it. He goes on to call Ricciardi "the right guy in the wrong place." And, for some reason, that makes sense.

I'd love for the rumours of a $100-$120 million dollar 2010 Blue Jays payroll to be true, and for Ricciardi to stick around (contract extension, anyone?). But I also understand that it might just be time for a change.

Some More Griffin Goodness

The Star's Griffin is always all over Ricciardi. He even still brings up the infamous "five-year plan." It's one of the many tools in his arsenal.

Yet, in that same T.O. Star article linked to above, Griffin acknowledges that the Jays should have offered Wells a contract. He even puts term and numbers on the table: 8 years, $138.6 million.

Yeah, that would have been a lot better. You've got to love the lasting power of the internet.

UPDATE: Joe Posnanki, being the good man that he is, took the time to read the post above, and has responded on his own blog. Dissent breeds discussion and, for those of you who know me and my writing, discussion is what I'm all about.

Pos gets it. He doesn't ignore us bloggers in our mother's basements, and for that I salute him. Cheers, Pos; you're good people.