The Magic Of 1998

"[Mark McGwire's steroids admission] changes nothing for the rest of us. McGwire is no better or worse a Hall of Fame candidate to me, though I believe his potential enshrinement is far less important to him than serving as a hitting coach. His playing record already had been tainted by the allegations and suspicions; this only makes the marks more indelible. If, by now, you still believed in the magic of 1998, you believe the lady actually gets sawed in half by the magician."

- Tom Verducci, Sports Illustrated

I've always wanted to believe in the magic of 1998. Because the magic of 1998 rekindled my love of baseball. Disenchanted by the strike of 1994, a part of me soured on the beautiful game. I was 11. Stupid, and spoiled. The Toronto Blue Jays, back-to-back World Series champions? Good times. I figured they'd win a few more. I figured they'd always have the league's highest payroll. I was young. Innocent. And, by that point, a full fledged member of The Church of Doug Gilmour.

It was the home runs that brought me back. Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa. The magic of 1998. Chasing Maris. It even had a name!1 If it weren't for the grace and beauty of the long ball, I might have lost baseball forever.

I was enthralled by the quest for 62. I was kissing my fingers and pointing them skyward -- like an idiot -- after a big hit, like Sosa. I still don't quite believe this, but I taught my father, who couldn't care less about baseball, the McGwire double fist bump, mock punch to the gut. To this day, he still greets a few of my mates with that move; that's how real Mark McGwire's legacy is. I even own his jersey. I got it on sale. I think.

Going back, I was 15 and a half. Not quite yet fully cynical. The Toronto Maple Leafs were awful, I was settled in at my new church, The Church of Mats Sundin, and the chase was ... fun. Science had evolved to the point where we had figured out why chicks dig the long ball. Because everyone does. And what's more dramatic than to watch sports history being made? McGwire and Sosa were entertainers. And they certainly entertained.

Steroids. Of course. By now, yeah, I'm fully cynical -- I don't care. I don't take professional sports as seriously as I used to. They are what they are: a great escape. The child in me will always want to believe the lady actually gets sawed in half by the magician.

Also: we knew. Even my dad knew. The magic of 1998 was manufactured, but it was magic nonetheless. What's one more asterisk? But forget about the steroids -- all the kids were doing it. Imagine having lived Mark McGwire's life these past few years. A life in which everyone -- everyone -- knew, without a shred of doubt, his secret. (Can it even be called a "secret" when everyone knows it? Semantics.) That had to have been awkward. Especially after the debacle before Congress; Mark McGwire had never looked so small. SI's Tom Verducci, quoted and linked to up top, is right: McGwire's back and shoulders must feel fantastic today.

A Fractured Support System

Since returning from the disabled list on June 29th, Roy Halladay's won a single game. Why? No, certainly not because of the trade rumours. That's ridiculous. Doc's an incredibly well-paid athlete; that shit comes with the territory. Harry Leroy can't get into the victory column because the Kevin Millar batting cleanup led Toronto Blue Jays can't be bothered to give him any God damn run support.

June 29th vs. Tampa Bay: zero runs. Doc departed after six innings; the Jays struck for their only run of the game in the 8th inning.

July 4th at New York: five runs. Clearly, that's about as good as it gets for Halladay.

July 9th at Tampa Bay: two runs.

July 19th vs. Boston: three runs. A masterful Halladay performance in a 3-1 win.

July 24th vs. Tampa Bay: two runs. Garzafied.

July 29th at Seattle: two runs. Toronto was two-hit over seven by Ryan fucking Rowland-Smith.

Yesterday, August 4th, vs. New York: three runs. The Jays left eight runners on base last night. Individually, 16. While Doc threw another complete game. For shame.

That's seven games, and 17 runs; an average of 2.43 runs when Doc's been on the mound. In other words: absolutely pathetic. What breaks my heart: six of those seven starts have come against Tampa Bay, New York, and Boston. Halladay deserves more. Halladay deserves better.

It's during moments of weakness such as this one that I begin to wonder about 2010. Sure, Toronto can boast a rotation of Halladay, Ricky Romero, Shaun Marcum, and any combination of Brett Cecil, Scott Richmond, Mark Rzepczynski, and Jesse Litsch. Who knows, maybe even Dustin McGowan. But no rotation will make up for the fact that this team just can't get it done offensively in the AL East. I'm looking right at you, Vernon Wells. And, please, J.P. Ricciardi, get Millar the fuck off my favourite team.

The Best in the Business

If you had to ask me to choose between The Globe and Mail's Jeff Blair and SI's Tom Verducci, I couldn't do it. Both of them know their baseball. And both of them just "get it."

Saith Verducci, from a must-read piece about the lunatics who think the Jays were "losers" at the trade deadline because Ricciardi didn't pull the trigger on a Halladay trade:

"So what did people expect? That the Blue Jays should lower their asking price on the best pitcher in baseball when they didn't have to move him in the first place? Would compromising when they didn't have to do so put them in the 'winners' category? Ownership really didn't want to dump such a popular franchise player, anyway."

There's more. Please use it freely as ammunition against the Ricciardi bashers (especially: Joanna):

"Toronto is not Cleveland, with its budget problems, Pittsburgh, with an organizational model that has been a complete failure, Kansas City, which is awful but still wastes money on second-tier journeymen who don't know how to win, or San Diego, which will check out of the contending business for the next couple of years until its farm system improves. Toronto's problem is that it is a good team in the wrong division. 'Good isn't enough,' Ricciardi said. 'You have to be great.' The Blue Jays have won between 83 and 88 games seven times in the previous 11 years, have a winning record in that span with more wins than the Cubs, Diamondbacks and a dozen other teams -- and still didn't sniff the postseason. Eight National League teams made the playoffs in that time with 88 or fewer wins."

Nope, playing in the AL East has nothing - nothing at all - to do with the fact the Jays haven't played October baseball since 1993. And keep calling it an "excuse." It's not. It can't be. It's reality.

Here's some Blair. Just the goods, and no bullshit, as per the usual:

"Call up Travis Snider. Ship out Kevin Millar. Do something. Never mind cowboy up. I’d rather see cowboy out. I mean, manager Cito Gaston announced an open audition for the cleanup spot before Tuesday night’s game, and it’s not even mid-August. How does that happen in the American League East, anyhow?"

Cito. He's a stubborn, stupid, silly man.

One more link. I'm not happy about it, but thanks to Drew - LtB's most recent post over at the always resourceful Ghostrunner on First, I will cease mercilessly hating on Rod The Bod Barajas. But that .288 on-base percentage is still disgusting.

Another one bites the dust

Manny Ramirez, cheater.

Or is he? Apparently Manny is guilty as charged of using a performance enhancing drug - only of the sexual variety.

Regardless, arguably the greatest hitter of our generation has failed a drug test. Whatever he took was a baseball enhancer as well. And it's unfortunate, because he'll now be painted with the same brush as douchebags like A-Rod and Roger Clemens.

When it comes to baseball players testing positive for the juice, nothing surprises me anymore. I was shocked to hear about Ramirez, but not surprised. These days, they're all guilty until proven innocent.

Except for two men: Roy Halladay, the greatest pitcher I've ever known, and Carlos Delgado, the lost slugger of the Steroid Era.

I'm not sure who's next to be outed, but if it were one of those two men, a part of me would die inside. I'm not sure I could deal with finding out that Roy Halladay isn't perfect, or that Delgado didn't become the best Toronto Blue Jay hitter of all time on nothing but his own merit. It would be akin to finding out, as a young boy, that Santa Claus does not in fact exist; things would never be the same again. Innocence, lost.

Here's hoping that day never comes.

Tim Lincecum Is Good

Do you remember that Tim Lincecum guy? Starting pitcher, San Francisco Giants? You know, the guy Toronto Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi tried to acquire over the winter, by offering San Fran Alex Rios? Yeah, that guy. He's, uh, doing pretty well this season.

With Lincecum's freakish delivery set to be on the cover of Sports Illustrated this week, and rumours flying around that he's going to be the starting pitcher for the National League at the All-Star game, I thought it might be interesting to see how he's doing over in the Bay Area. Things might certainly be different in T.O. had the Lincecum/Rios trade gone through.

First of all, this post is not meant to demean Alex Rios. I heart Rios. I think he's one of baseball's best up-and-coming stars, and he's got a bright, bright future in the game. I'm more than glad we got his name on a long-term contract.

But Rios, like the rest of his Blue Jays brethren, has severely underperformed this season. His struggles have been well documented. We're 85 games into the campaign and Rios has only four home runs and 33 RsBI. I know, home runs and runs batted it aren't everything, but this was supposed to be Rios' breakout season, where he entrenched himself into baseball's upper echelon of star players. It's been extremely disappointing, as he's looked lost at the plate on too many occasions.

Want to know just how bad it has been for Rios? He's hit one more home run than Frank Thomas in a Blue Jays uniform this season.

And Frank Thomas was released on April 20th.

It simply hasn't happened for Rios this year, and I don't know why. Both his batting average (.284) and on-base percentage (.337) numbers are down from '06 and '07, and he's struck out 77 times already this season, most on the team by a comfortable margin. While he has stolen an impressive 21 bases, at the end of the day his .734 OPS simply isn't cutting it. Rios must improve his numbers in the second half.

As for Tim Lincecum, he's dominating the senior circuit. With all signs pointing to A.J. Burnett being traded before the July 31st trade deadline, or opting out of his contract come season's end, Timothy LeRoy Lincecum would look awfully, awfully, good in a Blue Jays uniform right now, and in the years to come. Oh, what might have been.

In only his second year in the big leagues, Lincecum is making Giants general manager Brian Sabean look like a smart man for holding on to him. And this is the same Sabean who threw a ton of money at Barry Zito. Barry fucking Zito.

Here are Lincecum's 2008 stats:

W-L: 10-1
Innings pitched: 115.2
ERA: 2.49
WHIP: 1.24
Strikeouts: 122
Walks: 44
Opponents batting average: .236

The Ks really stand out. For a scrawny kid with a strange delivery, Lincecum can throw some serious heat.

After his rookie campaign in which he showed so much promise, Lincecum is proving he's the real deal. You've simply got to tip your cap to Sabean and the Giants. They thought long and hard over the Rios deal, but in the end, it looks like they made the right decision.

I leave you with a link to Tom Verducci's excellent Sports Illustrated piece on "The Freak." Verducci is good people. Check out the layout.

A Change Of Heart

After some reflection and reconsideration, and some advice from my man Jeff Blair at The Globe, maybe Toronto trading Alex Rios for pitcher Tim Lincecum isn’t so bad after all. I’ve had what is called a change of heart. Let’s do the damn thing.

I’m an emotional guy. When I heard JPeezy was dangling Rios in front of the Giants I acted, well, emotionally. No shit. It’s what I do. Rios is the man, the future, the latino heat. My initial reaction was: “What the $#@!? Rios, one-for-one for a pitcher? Can’t be done. No way. Abort mission.”

In my emotional state, I shot off an email to Blairsy at The Globe. Turns out, the email made his mail bag. Here it is, in all its glory:

Jeff,
Loyal reader, who is extremely nervous after reading your blog that says Ricciardi is willing to trade Rios for Lincecum. Please tell me this isn't going to happen. Say it ain't so. Tell me you think the Jays should keep Rios. Don't you? Don't you?!
Distraught,
eyebleaf

I needed to be told it was all going to be ok. I needed a shoulder to lean on. I was distraught, damn it! Blairsy, Mr. Calm, Cool and Collected, was there for me. He laid it down, straight:

Eyebleaf: Each night after MacLeod and I wrapped up our work here, I'd head down to the lobby bar to corner Blue Jays types or executives from other teams or agents with whom I have any kind of rapport. The deal was all we'd talk about and I have to admit I'm still going back and forth on it, because I think Rios is an uncommonly talented offensive player and when I hear a former manager I trust tell me Rios reminds him of Dave Winfield, I kind of pay attention. But considering how this market's going, I'm beginning to wonder if the Blue Jays don't think Rios is on the verge of just about putting himself out of their price range, considering how much money they owe Vernon Wells. And I also think they've taken a peak ahead to post-Roy Halladay, and view Lincecum and Dustin McGowan as front-of-the-rotation guys. Based on what I've seen teams do here - yeah, I make the deal if I'm the Blue Jays.

Blair’s right. Blair’s keeping it real. Cue the reflection and the reconsideration. I took a look at Lincecum’s stats from last year as a fresh-faced rookie with the Giants. Pretty impressive, man. Here’s the line:

Games Started: 24
Innings Pitched: 146.1
Hits Allowed: 122
Earned Runs Allowed: 65
Walks: 65
Strikeouts: 150
Earned Run Average.: 4.00
WHIP: 1.28
Batting Average Against: .226

For shits and giggles, let’s take a look at the line of one A.J. Burnett:

Games Started: 25
Innings Pitched: 165.2
Hits Allowed: 131
Earned Runs Allowed: 69
Walks: 66
Strikeouts: 176
Earned Run Average: 3.75
WHIP: 1.19
Batting Average Against: .214

Well slap me in the face and call me Sally Fields, because those numbers are mighty similar! Burnett pitched 20 more innings, but they all came in September when the Jays were, as usual, playing out the bloody stretch. Lincecum, a 2006 draft pick, was on a tight pitch count all season.

Blair hit the nail right on the head: Lincecum has A.J. Burnett-type nasty stuff, without the A.J. Burnett bullshit-attitude. Lincecum can pitch, pure and simple, and he’s only 23 years old.

This is, without a doubt, Burnett’s final year in Toronto. He’s got an opt-out after his third-season and you’re about as smart as George Dubya if you think he’s not going to use it. Hell, I’d use it too. Buh-bye, Burnett, don’t let the door injure your shoulder or your elbow on the way out. He should change his name to D.L. Burnett. Like Peterman told Elaine when he came back to the catalogue: “Kudos, Elaine, on a job……………..done.”

A lot of people are taking the opportunity to roast JPeezy on Burnett. Whatever. We took a chance on his arm, and it didn’t work out because the man can’t stay healthy, or pitch through pain. The opt-out lets us cut our losses. We can use the money elsewhere folks, so don’t get your panties tied up in bunches.

I’m going to give JPeezy and the Jays credit because they’re looking to the future. Lincecum has five years on his contract before he becomes elegible for restricted free agency, and he’s not exactly breaking the bank right now. Speaking of the bank, Blair is right, Rios is going to become one of those cash-money-millionaires, with all the bling, the ice, the rims, the hoes, and all those expensive liquors. You get the point. The market is crazy. Andruw Jones parlayed one of his worst seasons in to a two-year deal worth over $36 million. It defies logic. If Jones is making that type of money while on the downside of his career, imagine the loot Rios is going to demand?

The more I think about it, the more this deal needs to be done. I’ve gone from hopping mad and praying that the Giants would reject, to eagerly anticipating an announcement of the deal. Word is that it might not happen until the new year, if it happens at all.

Imagine a rotation (with Burnett still around in ’08) of Halladay, Lincecum, Burnett, McGowan and Marcum. That’s money, right there. I’m positive JPeezy is doing everything he can to trade Burnett, but I doubt there will be many takers when it’s no secret he’ll be hitting the market again next summer.

And the post-Halladay years, as difficult as they are to think about, are approaching. Doc’s not getting any younger. He’s going to have to pass the torch on eventually, so who better than to mould this stud Lincecum than the Doctor?

Hitters, they say, are a dime a dozen. Great pitchers aren’t. The outfield, without Rios, consists of Wells in centre, Adam Lind in left, and a platoon of Reed Johnson and Matt Stairs in right. With the exception of Lind, we know what those boys can do. Once Lind learns not to swing at every god damn pitch, he’ll be more effective. In the meanwhile, he’s got power, and if he plays everyday I think he can jack 20 home runs. And Toronto’s 2006 draft pick, Travis Snider, is supposedly going to be the real deal in the outfield as well. He’s on his way and scheduled for arrival in 2009. Bottom line is that the offense, even with Rios in the lineup last season, was useless. The only way the Jays compete is if they get quality pitching and everyone in the lineup pulls his weight (Wells, Overbay and Glaus – I’m looking at you, fools).

Pitching wins championships. Just ask all the drunken hooligans down in Boston. The Red Sox won because they had the arms. Coco Crisp and J.D. Drew, two of their starting outfielders, could have put up similar numbers if they batted with toothpicks all of last season, but it didn’t matter, because, say it with me now: pitching wins championships. JPeezy is figuring that out. The Jays had a great staff last year, and in order to keep up with these fools in the American League East, we’ve got to join the arms race. That’s why getting Lincecum is so important, even if it costs us Alex Rios, God bless his heart.

Both Blair and Tom Verducci over at SI gave one example of a trade where a team sent over a great young hitter for a young pitching prospect. It was November of 1993, the Jays were coming off back-to-back World Series championships, and everything was right in the world. That November, The Montreal Expos traded Delino DeShields, one of the best young hitters in the game at the time (that’s disturbing in its own right), for a young pitching pup named Pedro Martinez.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say the Expos won that trade.

One can’t assume that Rios is going to turn out like DeShields (a bust) and Lincecum like Pedro (a special, special arm). But I think in both the long term and the short term, this is one trade that benefits the Jays, even though Rios is well on his way to superstardom. So come on, San Fran. Pull the trigger. The anticipation is killing me.

At the end of the day, it comes down to wins and losses. The only way the Jays are going to make the playoffs, if they ever do again, is on the strength of their arms. The Jays’ staff was ranked second in the league last year. Lincecum can hopefully make it number one.

Tom Verducci, in his column about the Jays on November 20th, delivered some statistics that have haunted me since the day I read them:

No team has won more games over the past two seasons (170) without making the playoffs. No team has won more games over the entire wild-card era (1,022) without making the playoffs. Such is life competing against both of baseball’s evil empires in the American League East.

Breaks your heart, don’t it?