July 07, 2010

One day it'll all make sense


Exactly one year ago today, on the morning of July 7th, 2009, Adam Lind was hitting .310/.384/.560/.944. He had 18 home runs to his name, along with 57 RsBI. Lind's wOBA in April, May, and June (with .330-.335 commonly used as the MLB average): .404, .333, and .457. There's more: his wRC+ -- wOBA's version of OPS+, with 100 being average -- in April, May, and June: 151, 103, 185.

Lind's comrade, Aaron Hill, woke up that same Tuesday a year ago with a batting line that read: .295/.334/.496/.830. He had even more home runs: 20. And even more RsBI: 59. Hill's wOBA through the first three baseball months of 2009: .419, .352, .337. His wRC+: 161, 116, 106.

Last year, the two of them were off to the proverbial races. Today: they're in reverse.

Adam Lind, 365 days later: .206/.266/.350/.615. A wOBA of .273, and a wRC+ of only 66. Ten home runs, and 37 RsBI. Eighty-three strikeouts compared to only 57 at this point in 2009. Left-handed pitching has absolutely toyed with Lind, like that dude in the Ally Canada commercials, who messes with those cute, innocent children. A .107 batting average against southpaws is laughable, but a wRC+ of -32 against them makes me want to do nothing but get drunk on cheap scotch.

It's not all bleak. There is hope in Lind's line-drive percentage:

April 2009: 23.2%
May 2009: 22.1%
June 2009: 24.4%

April 2010: 21.5%
May 2010: 14.9%
June 2010: 22.6%

Aside from May, Lind is mostly still hitting the ball hard. He just happens to be a Toronto Blue Jay. Which means he's unlucky. But it's reached the point where I've become concerned, so all I'll say is this: Cito better fix Lind before he leaves.

Aaron Hill. Jesus, where to begin? For consistency's sake, his deplorable line of .189/.276/.355/.631. His .284 wOBA is slightly better than Lind's, as is his 73 wRC+.

The bottom line: Toronto's two best hitters in 2009 have spent the first half of 2010 as impostors; as below-average Major League Baseball hitters.

To make matters worse, Lyle Overbay has decided to join Lind and Hill in the Suck Brigade. But before we get to Overbay's struggles, let's get one thing straight: if you hated on Overbay last season, you're probably going to hell. You had no reason to. He finished 2009 with a wRC+ of 123. Just because he's not a traditional first baseman doesn't mean he doesn't get the job done.

That job in 2010 is a whole other matter, though, because it's been a nightmare first half for Overbay. Once again, Lyle can't hit left-handed pitching; a .189 average, it's all but a lost cause. But he's improving. After posting a 62 wRC+ in April, he got it up to 97 in May, 111 in June, and now Overbay's off to a scorching July. Perhaps, with free agency pending, he's playing for a new contract. I would be.

It all just makes me sit back and wonder: what if Hill and Lind were having career years in 2010 instead of 2009, joining Jose Bautista, Alex Gonzalez, and John Buck who are doing the same. What if the two young stars were able to build on 2009, and play with with a rejuvenated, healthy, and Anaheim-bound Vernon Wells? What if Chicago passed on Alex Rios? What if Travis Snider was ready? What if Edwin Encarnacion wasn't a disgrace to third basemen the world over? (Especially Scott Rolen.) What if, what if, what if. How different might things be? Because the perfect season is what it's going to take for the Toronto Blue Jays to get back to the post-season; to the Playoffs!!!1

That's the beauty of baseball. In Toronto, at least. Where we wait for that season where it all comes together; for the seven months where baseball once again makes complete sense. The many peaks and valleys in each and every summer long season; they're why I love baseball. For me, watching Vernon Wells rise, then fall, then rise, fall again, and now be selected back to the All-Star game has been one incredible ride. I've fallen and risen with him, with every pop up to second base, and with every home run to left field.

The pitching so far this campaign has been more than adequate. Toronto's top four starters have 25 wins between them, and all find themselves in the top 25 in xFIP in the American League: Ricky Romero: 3.50 (6th); Brandon Morrow: 3.87 (11th); Shaun Marcum 4.01 (17th); and Brett Cecil: 4.15 (25th).

Could it be better, the pitching? Of course. It could always be better. Especially the fifth spot in the rotation, which I wouldn't mind seeing David Purcey audition for one more time. Why not? (And would someone please get Jesse Litsch on a treadmill?) But at the end of the day, the Blue Jays have now allowed three more runs -- 379 -- than they've scored -- 376. And that's on the bats.

So, we wait. For Lind and Hill to turn it around. For a peek at J.P. Arencibia, and perhaps Kyle Drabek, in a six-man September Toronto starting rotation. But most of all, we wait for the summer where it all comes together. And make no mistake: it will come. It has to. And that'll be a good summer. A very good summer. Probably the best summer of all.

Until then, though, all I want is my Silver Sluggers back.

5 comments:

Archimedies said...

Rule #1 regarding posting about baseball on the internet: If you don't use the most advanced stats possible, your post is meaningless.

eyebleaf said...

OPS? GET THE FUCK OUT OF MY FACE.

eyebleaf said...

I just spent another hour on Fangraphs.

SABERMETRICS!!!1

Escaped Lab Rat said...

Lind and Hill are this year's version of Rios and Wells.

eyebleaf said...

Rios and Wells in 2009: another perfect example of "WHEN THE HELL WILL IT ALL COME TOGETHER?" What a shit-show that was. Hill and Lind have certainly done their best to replicate it.