The age old question ...

When the Toronto Blue Jays exceed my expectations -- I had them good for 82 wins -- you know they've had a successful season. Just like that, the offseason is upon us, but what a season it was. I could go on and on: Jose Bautista's meaningful at-bats, and his assault on Toronto's, and baseball's, record books; the promising development of Toronto's top-four starting pitchers, with Kyle Drabek set to join them in 2011; the triumphant return of Vernon Wells; more, and quite possibly for the last time, yeomen's work from Scott Downs; home run after home run after home run after home run after home run; and, finally, Cito Gaston's farewell.

The polarizing Mike Wilner may have put it best, though:

"It was a tremendously fun year. We got to see one of the greatest games ever pitched, we got to see the greatest offensive season a Blue Jay has ever had, we got to see the greatest major-league debut any hitter has ever had, we got to see the Jays tie one league record with six doubles in an inning and another with six homers in a loss and we got to bite our fingernails as a Blue Jay starting pitcher took a no-hitter into the 7th inning an astounding FIVE times! Heck, we even got to go through the Nick Green era - remember that?"

I don't remember the Nick Green era, which is probably for the best. But Wilner's right: it was definitely a fun summer. And it wasn't supposed to be. That was the best part.

Let's not kid ourselves, though. It wasn't all double rainbows. Aaron Hill and Adam Lind did their best to kill my baseball buzz for six months, and before we look forward, we'll look back.

What comes first: patience at the plate, or confidence at the plate? Does confidence breed patience? Or is it the other way around? Without confidence, is patience in the batter's box impossible? Without patience, is confidence, and success, impossible? What the hell am I talking about here? What I'm trying to figure out is: How do two young, promising hitters go from being so successful to -- for one season at least -- below average Major League hitters?

To FanGraphs, yo. Let's start with Hill, and some of his year-over-year numbers, after he unfathomably spent most of 2010 flirting with the goddamn Mendoza Line.

O-Swing% -- the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone:

2010: 31.3%
2009: 26.5%

A five percent increase in Hill swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. The money stat? Perhaps. 

Z-Swing% -- the percentage of pitches a batter swings at inside the strike zone:

2010: 72.1%
2009: 74.2%

So, Hill swung at fewer pitches inside the strike zone, and more pitches outside the strike zone, compared to 2009, his breakout season. This season, he looked lost. From the get go. More often than not. These numbers make sense.

Swing% -- the total percentage of pitches a batter swings at:

2010: 50.7%
2009: 51.1%

A negligible difference. Does it come down to confidence, and approach? Swinging at the wrong pitches?

O-Contact% -- the percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown outside the strike zone:

2010: 70.9%
2009: 60.8%

A huge 10% increase here year-over-year. Not only was Hill swinging at more baseballs thrown outside the strike zone, he was hitting more of them. And unless you're Vladimir Guerrero, more often than not, those are outs.

Z-Contact% -- the percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown inside the strike zone:

2010: 90.9%
2009: 91.4%

Again, year-over-year, that's hardly a noteworthy difference. So, is this a good time to bring in baseball's luck factor, and Hill's feeble .196 2010 BABIP? I would think so.

Contact% -- the total percentage of contact made when swinging at all pitches:

2010: 84.5%
2009: 83.8%

Hill's career Contact% average is 84.5%.

Zone% -- the percentage of pitches seen inside the strike zone:

2010: 47.6%
2009: 51.7%

Does a confident and patient hitter take more pitches in the strike zone? I'm so confused.

Let's take at look Hill's left/right splits:

2010 vs. LHP (120 ABs): .125/.226/.225, .124 BABIP, .206 wOBA, 22 wRC+
2009 vs. LHP: (171 ABs): .298/.335/.561, .290 BABIP, .379 wOBA, 134 wRC+

2010 vs. RHP (408 ABs): .228/.285/.444, .217 BABIP, .318 wOBA, 98 wRC+
2009 vs. RHP (511 ABs): .282/.328/.478, .287 BABIP, .348 wOBA, 114 wRC+

Hill didn't have a clue versus left-handed pitching this season, after owning southpaws in 2009. Against right-handed pitching, I don't see why Hill can't be expected to put up his 2009 numbers every year. Slightly above average numbers against RHP, and above average against LHP is what Hill certainly seems capable of.

But, again, luck. Hill's .286 BABIP in 2009 was below average, but 36 home runs certainly helped in putting up a .357 wOBA, and 119 wRC+. This season, as mentioned, Hill's BABIP checked in at a putrid .196. His fly ball rate jumped to 54.2%, compared to 41% in 2009. Yet he still finished with 26 home runs. My question: How do we account for the increased fly ball rate? 

Below is how Hill's season began in 2010. Remember, he hit the disabled list two games into the campaign.

April 2010 (37 ABs): .162/.311/.297, .179 BABIP, .277 wOBA, 90 wRC+
May 2010 (114 ABs): .184/.273/.395, .161 BABIP, .298 wOBA, 85 wRC+

And here are Hill's numbers over the first two months of 2009:

April 2009 (104 ABs): .365/.412/.567, .384 BABIP, .419 wOBA, 161 wRC+
May 2009 (127 ABs): .307/.331/.480, .314 BABIP, .352 wOBA, 116 wRC+

Polar opposite starts to Hill's seasons. In 2009, he could do no wrong, as evidenced by his .384 BABIP. It certainly did even out, and by year's end it was below the league average. So, my question is, how much value do you put into a hot start? After two months of hitting the cover off the ball in April and May 2009, Hill's confidence had to have been sky-high. And after his pathetic, and unlucky, first two months of the 2010 season, Hill probably never felt worse about his hitting prospects. Not to mention the injury.

Did pitchers figure Aaron Hill out? Or was he unable to work through the cobwebs in his own head? How much of a hitter's success at the plate comes from being "locked in"? From a hot start, and not holding the bat too tight, and not trying to do too much? What comes first? Patience or confidence?

Do you know? Are you as confused as I am? Help a brother out.

Either way, we're going to find out next season. Personally, I can't wait. Toronto's first Spring Training game is only five months away.

I'll tackle Adam Lind in another post. My head hurts, yo.

Reuters, via daylife, hooked up the image of one frustrated Aaron Hill.

27 Outs

The sports world never sleeps. Me, I don't sleep enough.

1. I was on the stationary bike when Lyle Overbay took useless loogie Mark Hendrickson deep to right field for walk-off magic. I fist pumped. And you couldn't have slapped the stupid smile off of my face as I watched Overbay round the bases.

2. How enjoyable was it to see LyleO laughingly point to his helmet before he made it home, and then watch John Buck take a swing at his very head? On the Enjoyability Index, which I believe I just created, I'm going to have to go with a nine. Enjoy some fine photographs of the walk-off celebration, courtesy the hard working folks at Reuters (via daylife).

3. I'm working on a post I've so originally titled "Evaluating Overbay," in which I compare Lyle to every other American League first baseman every season since he arrived in Toronto, in terms of weighted on-base average, and weighted runs created plus. Sabermetrics, yo. It'll be up sometime next week, Inshallah.

4. Now that Overbay's finally hit 20 home runs, Adam Lind's going to play first base the rest of the way, right?

5. John Buck will hit his 20th home run next Sunday, October 3rd. Then it's all J.P. Arencibia behind the plate, all the time.

6. Ricky Romero reached and surpassed the 200-innings pitched mark Saturday afternoon. Milestone! Romero's improved his numbers across the board over 2009, except when it comes to wins. Which means Romero hasn't improved at all, actually. While Ricky's had his fair share of struggles, in July and September in particular, and continues to walk batters at a concerning rate, he's a better pitcher today than he was on this date last year. And, most importantly, he's healthy. Thank you, baseball Gods.

7. Edwin Encarnacion is a strong man. His home run to centre field on Saturday -- which sailed comfortably over the wall -- off a sub-90 MPH slider low in the strike zone proved it. It remains one of baseball's biggest shames that this isn't played every time he goes yard at the Dome.

8. You think you've seen it all, until Aaron Hill sends a home run to the second deck that lands in a concession worker's tray. I love baseball.

9. Two hundred and forty-one home runs. The Blue Jays' team record is 244, and it will fall.

10. I love defence, and it was on display Saturday afternoon at the SkyDome. Yunel Escobar's unorthodox throw to complete a double play. Jose Bautista's diving catch in right field, and subsequent doubling off of Ty Wigginton. Vernon Wells' highlight reel catch in centre field. There's nothing like good gloving, which is hopefully not what she said.

11. Speaking of Vernon Wells, The Ack wrote the post I was planning to write at The Tao Of Stieb. And it's always fun when someone does your homework for you. Lost in the shadow of Bautista's 52 home runs this summer has been the resurgence of Vernon Wells. And I'll be the first and last person to tell you that the resurgence of Vernon Wells has been a bloody fantastic development. The Vernon Wells Hatred Advisory System has at no point this season been higher than GUARDED. Wells has quietly reached the 30 home run mark, and in terms of wOBA (.359) and wRC+ (126), has had the third-best season of his career. His career, haters! No, Vernon's not worth the $23 million he's owed next season. Or the $21 million the year after that. And the year after that. And, Jesus, the year after that. But that's not the point.

12. You know what else has been great about 2010? David Purcey coming into his own as a middle reliever. He's got big shoes to fill. Get that paper, Scott Downs. You deserve it.

13. I miss Brandon Morrow.

14. Jesse Carlson's exploits in September: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 3.18 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, .150 BAA, .143 BABIP, 2.20 GB/FB. All's well that ends well, right?

15. Drew from Ghostrunner on First wrote Big League Stew's 2010 Toronto Blue Jays Dear John letter. It's a beauty. A couple of excerpts: "A complete game, 132-pitch, 17-strikeout opus came one batter shy of a no-hitter against the Rays. Not only one of the best games thrown by Blue Jays pitching in franchise history, one of the very best games ever pitched. Though no-hitting the Ray is about as rare as a failed urine test at the Lohan home, Morrow completely dominated the hapless Rays hitters with his otherworldly collection of high 90s heat and darting curveballs. ... A winning record heading into the final weeks is a heady accomplishment for a team expected to slip behind the Orioles in the standings. The Baltimore Orioles! Can you imagine anything more insulting?" Make sure you check it out. And about the Orioles, Drew, no, I can't.

16. Regardless of what you think of Cito Gaston, on your feet on Wednesday. No excuses.

17. The Texas Rangers celebrated winning the American League West division title Saturday evening. They're headed back to the playoffs for the first time in 11 years. And, yes, there is a Ron Washington cocaine joke somewhere in there. In all seriousness, I love the Rangers' post-season slogan: It's Time. I'm wondering if they'll lend it to us in Toronto.

18. I'm glad Felix Hernandez has a win-loss record of 12-12. We're about to find out just how far sabermetrics have come, folks.

19. Sunday: Buffalo and New England. Bills and Patriots. Probably just the Patriots. Hide yo kids, hide yo wife. Hide errbody. "Maybe next week, maybe next century ..."

20. After Saturday's loss to San Jose, Toronto FC have all but been mathematically eliminated from MLS's post-season. So: Playoffs!!!1

21. After scoring, again, for TFC Saturday night, Dwayne De Rosario "pulled out his imaginary chequebook and pen and mimicked writing a cheque. It was much more of a message than a goal celebration." I'm with DeRo: it's a crime he's so grossly underpaid compared to the mistakes that are Julian De Guzman and Mista. But there's a time and place for such statements, and it's not during a must-win game when the team you captain is battling life and death for a playoff spot. Hell, there's even a person for such a statement: DeRo's agent.

22. Finally, the Toronto Maple Leafs. And wasn't it great to hear Ron Wilson throw Nazem Kadri under the bus after the Leafs' Saturday night loss to Buffalo? According to master of motivation Wilson, Kadri likes to give the puck away, and needs his skates sharpened. You've just got to love constructive criticism. Especially in public. Perhaps it's all the years of being a Leafs fan finally taking their toll, but I can't help but shake the feeling that this -- Kadri and Wilson -- will not end well. It's a sobering thought. So sobering that I need a drink.

23. Oh, I almost forgot: Nick Foligno, and the beautiful goal he scored Saturday night. You know what made it even better? The fact it came against Montreal, and was scored on Carey Price.

24. Last and certainly least: Daniel Briere, fist pumping like a champ. In the pre-bloody-season! Disgusting.

I know, only 24 outs. This post was called due to rain.

Image of Jose Bautista's weapon of choice courtesy of -- this is a recording -- Reuters, via daylife.

Meaningful At-Bats

We continue, in Toronto, to wait for meaningful baseball. Patiently, I might add. And as the Blue Jays were officially -- mathematically -- eliminated from post-season play Sunday afternoon in Boston, I reverted to the old adage, tried, tested, and true: maybe next year.

But 2010 has far from been a lost cause. (Unless you're Travis Snider, or J.P. Arencibia, but that's a whole other story.) Toronto hasn't lost 100 games. They won't end up anywhere near the dreaded century mark. And they certainly won't finish below the Baltimore Orioles in the standings. Shame on those of you who even thought of such a fortune. No, we weren't treated to meaningful baseball this season, even though it's clear the franchise is headed towards the light. But, thanks to Jose Bautista, we were treated to that which we haven't seen around these parts since Carlos Delgado's heyday: meaningful at-bats.

Forty-nine home runs. One every 10.65 at-bats. And counting. A violent assault not only on fastballs, but on Toronto's, and baseball's, record books. History. Bautista will become the first Blue Jay to hit 50 home runs in a season. It's going to happen, and, no, I don't believe in jinxes. And when it does, when number 50 does clear the left field wall (hopefully at the SkyDome), the feat will have been accomplished for only the 42nd time in baseball history.

The Toronto Blue Jays have been around since 1977. The Steroid Era has come and gone. Bautista will be the first to hit 50 for the good guys, and he could very well be the last. That's the beauty of baseball. You just never know. I'm convinced the franchise will one day return the post-season. Will add a pennant, or two, to their collection. But I'm not so sure I'll ever see another no-hitter. Perhaps Dave Stieb's effort was Toronto's pitching performance of my lifetime. And, in that same light, perhaps Bautista's exploits in the batter's box have been Toronto's home run hitting performance of my lifetime.

Post-All Star break, there's been a buzz everytime Bautista has stepped up to the plate. It's palpable. At home, on the road, and even on television. Bautista excites; Bautista has people talking baseball. (And beards.) There's an expectation that regardless of who's throwing the ball, and how fast it's traveling, and how much it's moving, Bautista can murder it. The situation hardly matters, either. Nobody could be on base. Actually, nobody usually is. The Blue Jays could be down by five. Yet each Bautista at-bat matters. Each Bautista at-bat means more than any other.

The only comparable seasons to Bautista's are John Olerud's 1993 campaign, and Carlos Delgado's 2000 and 2003 seasons. Olerud flirted with .400 that magical summer, and finished with a Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) of .453, and a Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) of 181. In 2000, Delgado hit 41 home runs, and put up an incredible wOBA of .471. King Carlos bested Olerud's wRC+ by one, finishing with a rating of 182. Delgado finished fourth in MVP voting that season, which still completely blows my mind. In 2003, Delgado hit 42 home runs, and tallied a wOBA of .423, and a wRC+ of 160.

Bautista, with 49 home runs to his name, and 12 games left on the schedule, today sports a wOBA of .423, and a wRC+ of 170. Like I said: historic. One of the finer offensive seasons Toronto has ever seen. Delgado-esque. And who could ever have imagined saying that about the journeyman outfielder-slash-third baseman?

I get it, now. I get why Damien Cox, and others in his wake, had to ask the question. We're talking history, and in Bautista, a player who has come out of nowhere. Literally. Pittsburgh: baseball's nowhere. What I wish I'd see less of, though, in the Toronto media landscape, is "But you've got to at least ask the question ..." masquerading as reporting. Because I'd put money on the fact that Bautista is indeed clean. He's been tested. And he does not physically look the part of a juicer. If the Steroid Era taught us anything, it's that the human eye does not deceive. There's more: Bautista hasn't hit a cheap home run to opposite field all season. He's pulled one through 49 to the left side. The proof in Bautista's changed mechanics alibi -- he's closer to the plate with his back foot, his hands are higher, and he starts his leg kick, and swing, earlier -- can be found in the fact he's hitting fastballs 32.8 runs above average this season, compared to only 4.2 runs above average in 2009. Bautista essentially owns the inner-half of the plate. He's made a conscious decision to pull the ball. If he doesn't get a pitch to pull, he'll gladly take a walk, his on-base percentage a career-high .382, far above his .342 career average. Instead of wondering whether Bautista is on steroids, where are the columns applauding Bautista's patience at the plate? Where are the columns asking an even more important question: why the hell is he still being pitched to inside?

It's pointless, defending Jose Bautista's honour. I know that. And, at the end of the day, he doesn't need my help. His urine has done, and will continue to do, the talking.

Instead, I'm going to enjoy Bautista's final meaningful, and hopefully violent, at-bats this season. I'm going to be at the SkyDome on Tuesday night, and Wednesday night, and maybe even Thursday afternoon. Perhaps I'll be there on the weekend, too. And maybe next week, when the Yankees are in town. Bautista's got nine games to hit number 50 at home, in Toronto. And I'm not going to miss it.

Beautiful image via daylife.

Locking Up Ricky

The Toronto Blue Jays believe in Ricky Romero. So much so that they rewarded him with the largest contract in history -- five years, $30.1 million -- for a pitcher with less than two years of Major League service time to his name. And you know what? I'm totally fine with that. Actually: I'm more than fine with it; I love the decision. Because like the braintrust, I too believe in Ricky Romero.

Here's the breakdown of the deal, courtesy of the always reliable MLB Trade Rumours:

2010: $1.25 million bonus

2011: $750,000

2012: $5 million

2013 - 2015: $7.5 million

2016: $13 million club option ($600,000 buyout)

When Romero was the first pitcher chosen in the 2005 draft, 6th overall by the J.P. Ricciardi regime, here's what the then 20-year-old had to say: "I love competing. I love getting the ball in big games ... I have a lot of confidence that I can get the job done. That's just the type of competitor I've been."

And Romero wasn't lying. Because they said he was a bust; they said he'd never make it.

Five years later, and a year and a half into his pro career, they were dead wrong, and Romero has come as advertised; he's a fiery competitor. It was Ricciardi who in September of last year famously said: "You need a wheelbarrow to take his balls to the mound. That's how big they are."

Do yourself a favour and read that post linked above, from The Tao of Stieb. Almost three months ago to the day, The Ack wrote of Romero's development; he even called him "The Man," which Ricky most certainly is from this day forward.

Think about it: the Toronto Blue Jays went into the 2010 campaign with four young starters at the top of their rotation who are making, in baseball salaries, pennies:

Ricky Romero: $408,300

Shaun Marcum: $850,000

Brett Cecil: $400,000

Brandon Morrow: $409,800

Here's what they're worth, in terms of WAR (Wins Above Replacement):

Romero: 3.4

Morrow: 3.1

Marcum: 2.3

Cecil: 2.3

I've already spent far too much time on FanGraphs, so I'm just going to go ahead and assume that there is no more cost-effective rotation in baseball than Toronto's. There can't be. And Romero's leading the way. As amazing as that above quote from Ricciardi will always remain, it's clear there's more to #24 than just his cojones. There is the business that is his devastating changeup. The pitch he throws when he's got two strikes against a batter; the pitch the batter should know is coming. Below are the counts when Romero gets ahead, the batter at his mercy, and the percentage of time he unleashes his changeup:

0-2/35%

1-2/38%

2-2/47%

3-2/37%

It's his out pitch. Only when the count runs full does Romero turn to his fastball (44%) more than his changeup, as he probably should. And what he's doing is working. The batter, if he's done his homework, is thinking off-speed; he just can't hit it. Below are Romero's opponents' batting averages in those same counts:

0-2: .143

After 0-2: .125

1-2: .122

After 1-2: .150

2-2: .160

After 2-2: .165

3-2: .188

After 3-2: .188

Romero's a stone-cold killer. More often than not, he will put you away.

What's made RickRo so effective this season has been the improvement in his fastball, and his ability to throw five above-average pitches, something he wasn't able to do in 2009. According to Fangraphs' Pitch Type Values, Romero's fastball last year was 11.8 runs below average. His slider: 2.1 runs below average. Here's how what he's tossing in 2010 has fared:

Fastball: 7.4 runs above average

Slider: 3.0 runs above average

Cutter: 0.2 runs above average

Curveball: 3.2 runs above average

Changeup: 3.9 runs above average

Romero's changeup hasn't been as effective as it was last season (9.8 runs above average). But he's a more well-rounded pitcher in spite of the fact. He's getting better. And he's only 25.

There's more: Romero's ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB/FB). In 178 career innings pitched since bursting onto the scene a year ago, it's an immaculate 2.01; Halladay-esque. His 2010 GB/FB ratio of 1.99 is third-highest in the American League. And if Romero isn't allowing fly balls, he's not allowing home runs. His 2010 home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB) is 8.5%, in tune with the likes of Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke, Jered Weaver, Jon Lester, and Phil Hughes. That's fine American League company, and RickRo is worthy.

There's more still. Because Romero is striking out more batters, walking fewer, allowing fewer hits, and becoming one of the premier ground ball pitchers in the game, his xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.60 is among the best in the business. It ranks sixth in the AL, and those with lower numbers are: Francisco Lariano, Cliff Lee, Lester, Hernandez, and Weaver. And, yes, there are still some who have the audacity to say the Toronto Blue Jays are without an ace.

A hundred and seventy-eight innings. Enough to have me convinced. (I've been convinced for a while.) And at an average of $6 million a season, with $7.5 million being the most Romero takes home in any given year of the new deal, numbers that are "fair to both sides," enough to have the Blue Jays convinced, too.

Ricky got paid. Rightfully so. Your Troy Tulowitzki references are no longer of any use.

Finally, one last quote I'd like to share with you. It's from that fateful day in June way back in 2005, when Romero became a Blue Jay ...

"We figured we would lean more toward the pitching ... The more pitching we can develop the better off we're going to be."

- J.P. Ricciardi

Ricciardi was right. #TeamRomero.

One day it'll all make sense

Exactly one year ago today, on the morning of July 7th, 2009, Adam Lind was hitting .310/.384/.560/.944. He had 18 home runs to his name, along with 57 RsBI. Lind's wOBA in April, May, and June (with .330-.335 commonly used as the MLB average): .404, .333, and .457. There's more: his wRC+ -- wOBA's version of OPS+, with 100 being average -- in April, May, and June: 151, 103, 185.

Lind's comrade, Aaron Hill, woke up that same Tuesday a year ago with a batting line that read: .295/.334/.496/.830. He had even more home runs: 20. And even more RsBI: 59. Hill's wOBA through the first three baseball months of 2009: .419, .352, .337. His wRC+: 161, 116, 106.

Last year, the two of them were off to the proverbial races. Today: they're in reverse.

Adam Lind, 365 days later: .206/.266/.350/.615. A wOBA of .273, and a wRC+ of only 66. Ten home runs, and 37 RsBI. Eighty-three strikeouts compared to only 57 at this point in 2009. Left-handed pitching has absolutely toyed with Lind, like that dude in the Ally Canada commercials, who messes with those cute, innocent children. A .107 batting average against southpaws is laughable, but a wRC+ of -32 against them makes me want to do nothing but get drunk on cheap scotch.

It's not all bleak. There is hope in Lind's line-drive percentage:

April 2009: 23.2%

May 2009: 22.1%

June 2009: 24.4%

April 2010: 21.5%

May 2010: 14.9%

June 2010: 22.6%

Aside from May, Lind is mostly still hitting the ball hard. He just happens to be a Toronto Blue Jay. Which means he's unlucky. But it's reached the point where I've become concerned, so all I'll say is this: Cito better fix Lind before he leaves.

Aaron Hill. Jesus, where to begin? For consistency's sake, his deplorable line of .189/.276/.355/.631. His .284 wOBA is slightly better than Lind's, as is his 73 wRC+.

The bottom line: Toronto's two best hitters in 2009 have spent the first half of 2010 as impostors; as below-average Major League Baseball hitters.

To make matters worse, Lyle Overbay has decided to join Lind and Hill in the Suck Brigade. But before we get to Overbay's struggles, let's get one thing straight: if you hated on Overbay last season, you're probably going to hell. You had no reason to. He finished 2009 with a wRC+ of 123. Just because he's not a traditional first baseman doesn't mean he doesn't get the job done.

That job in 2010 is a whole other matter, though, because it's been a nightmare first half for Overbay. Once again, Lyle can't hit left-handed pitching; a .189 average, it's all but a lost cause. But he's improving. After posting a 62 wRC+ in April, he got it up to 97 in May, 111 in June, and now Overbay's off to a scorching July. Perhaps, with free agency pending, he's playing for a new contract. I would be.

It all just makes me sit back and wonder: what if Hill and Lind were having career years in 2010 instead of 2009, joining Jose Bautista, Alex Gonzalez, and John Buck who are doing the same. What if the two young stars were able to build on 2009, and play with with a rejuvenated, healthy, and Anaheim-bound Vernon Wells? What if Chicago passed on Alex Rios? What if Travis Snider was ready? What if Edwin Encarnacion wasn't a disgrace to third basemen the world over? (Especially Scott Rolen.) What if, what if, what if. How different might things be? Because the perfect season is what it's going to take for the Toronto Blue Jays to get back to the post-season; to the Playoffs!!!1

That's the beauty of baseball. In Toronto, at least. Where we wait for that season where it all comes together; for the seven months where baseball once again makes complete sense. The many peaks and valleys in each and every summer long season; they're why I love baseball. For me, watching Vernon Wells rise, then fall, then rise, fall again, and now be selected back to the All-Star game has been one incredible ride. I've fallen and risen with him, with every pop up to second base, and with every home run to left field.

The pitching so far this campaign has been more than adequate. Toronto's top four starters have 25 wins between them, and all find themselves in the top 25 in xFIP in the American League: Ricky Romero: 3.50 (6th); Brandon Morrow: 3.87 (11th); Shaun Marcum 4.01 (17th); and Brett Cecil: 4.15 (25th).

Could it be better, the pitching? Of course. It could always be better. Especially the fifth spot in the rotation, which I wouldn't mind seeing David Purcey audition for one more time. Why not? (And would someone please get Jesse Litsch on a treadmill?) But at the end of the day, the Blue Jays have now allowed three more runs -- 379 -- than they've scored -- 376. And that's on the bats.

So, we wait. For Lind and Hill to turn it around. For a peek at J.P. Arencibia, and perhaps Kyle Drabek, in a six-man September Toronto starting rotation. But most of all, we wait for the summer where it all comes together. And make no mistake: it will come. It has to. And that'll be a good summer. A very good summer. Probably the best summer of all.

Until then, though, all I want is my Silver Sluggers back.