Showing posts with label what if. Show all posts
Showing posts with label what if. Show all posts

July 07, 2010

One day it'll all make sense


Exactly one year ago today, on the morning of July 7th, 2009, Adam Lind was hitting .310/.384/.560/.944. He had 18 home runs to his name, along with 57 RsBI. Lind's wOBA in April, May, and June (with .330-.335 commonly used as the MLB average): .404, .333, and .457. There's more: his wRC+ -- wOBA's version of OPS+, with 100 being average -- in April, May, and June: 151, 103, 185.

Lind's comrade, Aaron Hill, woke up that same Tuesday a year ago with a batting line that read: .295/.334/.496/.830. He had even more home runs: 20. And even more RsBI: 59. Hill's wOBA through the first three baseball months of 2009: .419, .352, .337. His wRC+: 161, 116, 106.

Last year, the two of them were off to the proverbial races. Today: they're in reverse.

Adam Lind, 365 days later: .206/.266/.350/.615. A wOBA of .273, and a wRC+ of only 66. Ten home runs, and 37 RsBI. Eighty-three strikeouts compared to only 57 at this point in 2009. Left-handed pitching has absolutely toyed with Lind, like that dude in the Ally Canada commercials, who messes with those cute, innocent children. A .107 batting average against southpaws is laughable, but a wRC+ of -32 against them makes me want to do nothing but get drunk on cheap scotch.

It's not all bleak. There is hope in Lind's line-drive percentage:

April 2009: 23.2%
May 2009: 22.1%
June 2009: 24.4%

April 2010: 21.5%
May 2010: 14.9%
June 2010: 22.6%

Aside from May, Lind is mostly still hitting the ball hard. He just happens to be a Toronto Blue Jay. Which means he's unlucky. But it's reached the point where I've become concerned, so all I'll say is this: Cito better fix Lind before he leaves.

Aaron Hill. Jesus, where to begin? For consistency's sake, his deplorable line of .189/.276/.355/.631. His .284 wOBA is slightly better than Lind's, as is his 73 wRC+.

The bottom line: Toronto's two best hitters in 2009 have spent the first half of 2010 as impostors; as below-average Major League Baseball hitters.

To make matters worse, Lyle Overbay has decided to join Lind and Hill in the Suck Brigade. But before we get to Overbay's struggles, let's get one thing straight: if you hated on Overbay last season, you're probably going to hell. You had no reason to. He finished 2009 with a wRC+ of 123. Just because he's not a traditional first baseman doesn't mean he doesn't get the job done.

That job in 2010 is a whole other matter, though, because it's been a nightmare first half for Overbay. Once again, Lyle can't hit left-handed pitching; a .189 average, it's all but a lost cause. But he's improving. After posting a 62 wRC+ in April, he got it up to 97 in May, 111 in June, and now Overbay's off to a scorching July. Perhaps, with free agency pending, he's playing for a new contract. I would be.

It all just makes me sit back and wonder: what if Hill and Lind were having career years in 2010 instead of 2009, joining Jose Bautista, Alex Gonzalez, and John Buck who are doing the same. What if the two young stars were able to build on 2009, and play with with a rejuvenated, healthy, and Anaheim-bound Vernon Wells? What if Chicago passed on Alex Rios? What if Travis Snider was ready? What if Edwin Encarnacion wasn't a disgrace to third basemen the world over? (Especially Scott Rolen.) What if, what if, what if. How different might things be? Because the perfect season is what it's going to take for the Toronto Blue Jays to get back to the post-season; to the Playoffs!!!1

That's the beauty of baseball. In Toronto, at least. Where we wait for that season where it all comes together; for the seven months where baseball once again makes complete sense. The many peaks and valleys in each and every summer long season; they're why I love baseball. For me, watching Vernon Wells rise, then fall, then rise, fall again, and now be selected back to the All-Star game has been one incredible ride. I've fallen and risen with him, with every pop up to second base, and with every home run to left field.

The pitching so far this campaign has been more than adequate. Toronto's top four starters have 25 wins between them, and all find themselves in the top 25 in xFIP in the American League: Ricky Romero: 3.50 (6th); Brandon Morrow: 3.87 (11th); Shaun Marcum 4.01 (17th); and Brett Cecil: 4.15 (25th).

Could it be better, the pitching? Of course. It could always be better. Especially the fifth spot in the rotation, which I wouldn't mind seeing David Purcey audition for one more time. Why not? (And would someone please get Jesse Litsch on a treadmill?) But at the end of the day, the Blue Jays have now allowed three more runs -- 379 -- than they've scored -- 376. And that's on the bats.

So, we wait. For Lind and Hill to turn it around. For a peek at J.P. Arencibia, and perhaps Kyle Drabek, in a six-man September Toronto starting rotation. But most of all, we wait for the summer where it all comes together. And make no mistake: it will come. It has to. And that'll be a good summer. A very good summer. Probably the best summer of all.

Until then, though, all I want is my Silver Sluggers back.

September 26, 2009

Until We Meet Again




I didn't go to the game. I didn't even watch it. Last night, for the first time, I saw Roy Halladay dominate a box score. Inning by inning, strikeout after strikeout. In the end, another complete game shutout.

And it won't be the last at the SkyDome. I believe Roy Halladay will be a Toronto Blue Jay in 2010.

For some inexplicable reason, I have faith in the plan Paul Beeston is shortly due to unveil. I know; I have no reason to. I know absolutely nothing about it. Nobody does. Yet I remain unhinged. Rumours of a $120 million dollar payroll were enough to make me believe that will indeed be the case. Like George Costanza said: "Jerry, just remember, it's not a lie if you believe it."

Pat Gillick as president? Again, I know, the franchise shouldn't continue delving back into the past. It's not a healthy way to live. But I'm all over it. If I've learned anything over the years as a Blue Jays and Maple Leafs fan, it's that my nostalgia quota can never be filled.

September 05, 2009

Selfish




For the most selfish of reasons, I'm happy Roy Halladay didn't no-hit the New York Yankees last night. Actually, perhaps happy isn't the right word. Let's go with relieved. If it happened - if Ramiro Pena didn't hit that double to right field in the sixth inning - while I chose not to be there, I'm not sure what I would have done with myself. (Other than be deeper down a bottle than I've ever been before.) I think I might have died.

Mission Doc - to be in attendance for every Roy Halladay start at the SkyDome this season - hit the wall last night. I don't know if it was because the Toronto Blue Jays have crushed my soul with their recent play, or because Doc has looked remarkably average while not throwing his best pitch while on the mound. Probably a combination of both. Instead of being in attendance, I was live blogging the game for The Score and, by the fifth inning, I knew I'd made the wrong decision. Doc was rightfully punishing my apathy.

Don't get me wrong, I'd have loved to see Doc throw a perfect game, or a no-hitter. Lord knows he's talented enough to do it. Before each and every start he makes, the thought crosses my mind: this could be it. And through five innings Friday night, I thought Doc's destiny had arrived.

Have you ever seen Doc pitch better? It might have been his finest hour. Against the high octane New York Yankees, the best team in baseball, no less. First-pitch strikes; ground ball after ground ball; mind-blowing movement on his pitches; a bases loaded strikeout, looking, of Alex Rodriguez. I know I've said it before, but what a treat Harry Leroy III is to watch.

A complete game, one-hit shutout. Nine strikeouts. Only 111 pitches; 73 of them strikes. Thanks, Doc. I'll never question you again.

Luckily for me, yesterday's game didn't hit the four hour mark. Otherwise I'd have been worried about my erection.

Kevin "You're Such A Disease" Millar

Drunk Jays Fans' Stoeten was kind of pissed off that Cito Gaston had everyone's favourite Blue Jay Kevin Millar batting cleanup last night. I think we can all agree that it makes zero sense for Millar to be in that position, while Randy Ruiz sits on the bench. While I'm certainly not aboard the "Fire Cito" train my man Drew-LtB is riding, I understand the frustration.

Anyway, there's no point in extolling just how God-awful Millar truly is. I'm sure he's a fine human being, and a dear in the clubhouse, but he's useless on the baseball field. Make him a bench coach, if he's that fucking great to have around. But get him off the field.

Now that Mark Rzepczynski's been shut down, I selfishly propose that Millar take his spot in the rotation. If he does, all will be forgiven. I could use some motivation to watch this team. And I sure as hell could use the entertainment.